Iraqi Doomsday Bug
Wed February 5th, 2003 09:39 MSTColin Powell before the UN today: “Iraq has the wherewithall to produce smallpox.”
This is the first official statement that Iraq actually has smallpox. Not said is that if they do, they also have the means to create a virus lethal enough to be called a “doomsday weapon.” They have skilled scientists, and are known to test their agents on human subjects. Genetic modification of poxviruses is easy and routine in the world of virology. Poxvirus genetic engineering kits are available for under $1000.
A genetically engineered smallpox would likely be undeterred by vaccination of potential victims, and if it contains the Interleukin-4 gene, the virus could be 100% lethal to humans.
Research in mice has demonstrated that a related pox-virus, with the IL-4 gene added, is a “super-virus” which suppresses the immune defense.
“Strikingly, infection of recently immunized genetically resistant mice with the virus expressing IL-4 also resulted in significant mortality due to fulminant mousepox.”
In other words, a strain of mice normally resistant to mousepox, which had also been vaccinated, succumbed to this virus. This research so alarmed the scientific community that debates continue on whether it should have been published.
It is likely that a smallpox virus similarly engineered could be literally a “doomsday bug.” Such a virus would wipe out almost all human life on earth.
If Saddam has smallpox capability, as Secretary Powell says, then Saddam has this virus!
Iraqi Doomesday Bug
Colin Powell before the UN today: “Iraq has the wherewithall to produce smallpox.” Useful Fools has posted some frightening information
My Nightmare
“Useful Fools” has some nightmarish information on Iraq and a “Doomsday” bug. But something that might help, there’s a project,
While putting IL-4 into smallpox may well drastically increase its lethality for those who are infected keep in mind that it probably won’t increase its transmissibility. In fact, it might have the opposite effect on transmissibility if it kills whoever gets it.
In the event that a super-killer smallpox was released the death toll would be far greater in the less developed countries. One can drastically reduce the spread of smallpox by making everyone wear face masks that would catch the smallpox that would come out when people coughed. Also, people would reduce their exposure to other people in other ways like by shopping less often, working from home, and so on.
You raise a very couple of very good points.
Smallpox is one of the more unusual human pathogens in that it infects *only* humans. This is why it was possible to eradicate it in the wild, and means that the ILK-4 version could likewise be eradicated or contained without spreading to all human beings.
In that sense, adding ILK-4 to West Nile Virus would be more scary (I have no idea if you can actually do that and have a viable organism). West Nile has many animal hosts, and epidemiologists have suggested that all Americans will eventually be infected.
The second point about increased lethality decreasing transmissibility is also good. Typical adapted pathogens survive by not killing their hosts until the agent has a chance to spread. This is why Ebola epidemics are not a threat except in certain cultures in Africa.
One exception to the rule of allowing the victim to live to spread the disease is anthrax. It specializes in ungulants and spreads by literally converting its victim into a mass of hardy spores that will be later picked up by another grazing animal.
Other pathogens exist which kill humans very quickly because humans are not the primary host and there has not been host-parasite co-evolution to reduce the lethality of the agent. Ebola and Sin Nombre (hantavirus) are but a couple of recent examples of these.
Of course the disruption required to contain the spread of such a smallpox would be immense (how many people have adequate face masks? Normal masks are not good enough for the smallpox virus).
Thanks for the comments.
John
IF one can identify the mode of transmission quickly then any mode of transmission can be countered in some fashion. The counters may not be convenient. But take your mosquito vector as an example. People could literally wear mosoquito nets that would drape down from a wide brim hat in order to keep the net away from the skin. Full length clothing would have to be worn as well. Of course it sure would make being outside in the heat an unpleasant experience. But beats dying.
Inconvenient ways to block transmission would in time be followed by better ways such as new drugs, new vaccines, and even means to flush the pathogen out of the species that carries it. For instance, genetically engineer a variation of mosquitoes that prevents the pathogen from living in mosquitoes and then help that variation of mosquito outcompete the naturally occurring varieties.
The manufacture and use of both chemical and biological weapons is fraught with potential errors resulting in injury or death to the manufacturers. Every step along the way until release, the user is more at risk than anyone else. The casulty rate among the bomb makers of the Intifada and the IRA is an illustration of that point.
Add up the costs of such a program, the distribution risks, and the threat that the United States will reply with WMD as is its stated policy, you might have an unlikely scenario. Given that the attacks to date involved kinetic energy weapons or readlily available explosive mechanisms, a bio attack is less likely than another attack like we’ve already experienced.
Other smallpox info at my site
Tyrants are willing to have their subjects take lots of risks! The Soviets created vast quantities of smallpox without any known casualties (other than non-bioweapons workers on an oceanographic survey vessel).
Smallpox has no return address, so the WMD retaliation is not certain. Have we retaliated against anyone for the Anthrax attack? Do we know for sure it wasn’t a foreign terrorist?. Why haven’t we nuked Iraq… or was it Libya… or was it North Korea…. or….! In fact, the message we sent was that biological agents are safe to use because there will be no retaliation if state actors cannot be identified!
Furthermore, a tyrant about to lose all (Saddam) or an insane regime (DPRK?) may not be deterred.
Also, some bioagents, including smallpox, can be created and spread with very low tech methods. An organization like Al Qaeda could use either simple sprayers or infected suicide attackers.
If someone is working with a non-vaccine resistant smallpox, a simple vaccination plus moderate biohazard techniques are sufficient to protect the workers. After all, most work on smallpox was done before the invention of negative pressure high level biocontainment facilities!
The costs of such a program are very low. If you are being careful, you need a lab (room) plus some glassware, autoclave, exhaust hood with HEPA filters, growth medium, and a few other things. If you are adding in genetic engineering, you need a poxvirus genetic engineering kit (available on the market for under $2000) and some specific enzymes and nucleotide sequences. All together, this would cost under $100,000.
Bio-attacks have already occurred. Several Americans were killed by a very dangerous Anthrax powder in 2001. The Rajneeshees of Oregon sickened 700 people by intentionally infecting their food with salmonella. The Aum cult tried the use of a number of biological agents including Anthrax. They were not successful, but this same cult was unable to kill more than a few people in a crowded subway using nerve agents. They were not the sharpest knives in the drawer! We cannot count on similar incompetence by DPRK or Iraqi agents, or Al Qaeda terrorists.
I worry that Saddam will pull a Jim Jones and gas/infect his own people. If smallpox (even “normal” smallpox) is used I think the third world will be pretty much depopulated. It would burn through Africa, Southern Asia and the Middle East within weeks. It would take only a few months to reach every corner of the globe (except maybe the polar regions).
A scorpion sting strategy would be expected from him so I hope some planning has been done to minimize the risk.
nice article, keep up the good work.
The IL-4 gene could enhance virtually any pathogen. Unfortunately, the IL-4 gene allows a pathogen to spread in the body, it doesn’t just destroy the immune system. The IL-4 gene also does inhance the ability of the virus to infect (read The Demon in the Freezer-it took far less viron enhanced with the IL-4 gene to infect a host). Furthermore, using zoonosis, you could infect an animal vector, making it virtually impossible to irradicate. For instance, authorities don’t talk about erradicating mosquitoes to stop the West Nile virus (less than a year ago it was discovered that infected mosquitoes lay infected eggs, so are hatched infected). It has been reported in the news that if animals in the wild are a reserve of the SARS virus, that the disease will be virtually impossible to get rid of. I recently talked to an FBI agent that specializes in weapons of mass destruction, and he was in denial how easy it was to inhance a virus. It is ten times easier to enhance a virus with the IL-4 gene than it is to enrich uranium.
The IL-4 gene could enhance virtually any pathogen. Unfortunately, the IL-4 gene allows a pathogen to spread in the body, it doesn’t just destroy the immune system. The IL-4 gene also does inhance the ability of the virus to infect (read The Demon in the Freezer-it took far less viron enhanced with the IL-4 gene to infect a host). Furthermore, using zoonosis, you could infect an animal vector, making it virtually impossible to irradicate. For instance, authorities don’t talk about erradicating mosquitoes to stop the West Nile virus (less than a year ago it was discovered that infected mosquitoes lay infected eggs, so are hatched infected). It has been reported in the news that if animals in the wild are a reserve of the SARS virus, that the disease will be virtually impossible to get rid of. I recently talked to an FBI agent that specializes in weapons of mass destruction, and he was in denial how easy it was to inhance a virus. It is ten times easier to enhance a virus with the IL-4 gene than it is to enrich uranium.
The IL-4 gene could enhance virtually any pathogen. Unfortunately, the IL-4 gene allows a pathogen to spread in the body, it doesn’t just destroy the immune system. The IL-4 gene also does inhance the ability of the virus to infect (read The Demon in the Freezer-it took far less viron enhanced with the IL-4 gene to infect a host). Furthermore, using zoonosis, you could infect an animal vector, making it virtually impossible to irradicate. For instance, authorities don’t talk about erradicating mosquitoes to stop the West Nile virus (less than a year ago it was discovered that infected mosquitoes lay infected eggs, so are hatched infected). It has been reported in the news that if animals in the wild are a reserve of the SARS virus, that the disease will be virtually impossible to get rid of. I recently talked to an FBI agent that specializes in weapons of mass destruction, and he was in denial how easy it was to inhance a virus. It is ten times easier to enhance a virus with the IL-4 gene than it is to enrich uranium.
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I’ve just seen this site for the first time and am impressed with the quality of the arguments used within it. I am not of a scientific background myself (law enforcement) so may be able to give a different perspective.
Much talk centres around terrorist groups or rogue states creating bio weapons. However bio weapons are not selective and would just as likely eradicate potential invaders/enemy within as anybody else. I believe the main threat of this kind of event would be the lone psychopath/religious zealot with a reasonable scientific background. I read a couple of years ago about a biology student in the UK who was imprisoned for various offences, however he apparently stated that he wanted to create a pathogen to wipe out the entire species and had set up a lab at home to work on it. i don’t know any more than that but how many individuals or small groups are there out there quietly collecting equipment and tapping natural plague reserviors such as vermin populations for the raw materials?
This is not meant to be pessimistic, just that we should also look small and locally as well as to the bigger, headline grabbing groups.
Any thoughts?
R King
Thanks for your comments
I mostly agree with you. The Ted Kazynski scenario is a likely occurrence over time.
However, the Islamofascists might also use such a technique, either out of some religious belief that they would be saved, or because they are willing to sustain comparable damages.
For example, if 90% of the world’s population is wiped out in a uniform manner, we lose a whole lot more than they do. Our high tech society would collapse. They would go back to a level of technology they lived with only 150 years ago, which would suit them just fine.
Likewise, if they used a highly contagious bug that was only 25% lethal, we would sustain losses that would be terribly horrifying to us (and economically disastrous). They are likely to be quite willing to accept such losses.
Consider a related statement by the number two guy in Iran - Rafsanjani:
Translation: Muslims can destroy Israel with nuclear weapons while receiving only acceptable damage in response.
This means he is willing to sacrifice tens of millions of people to that cause. Al Qaeda is likely to be even more tolerant of casualties.
I am going to expose my ignorance here about medical matters. I recently read Stephen King’s, ‘The Stand’great book but the mythical ’superflu’ used as a device by the author to wipe out 99.9% of the population managed to do it in about 3-4 weeks. That seems awfully fast to me.
Given that we have mass air travel, crowded cities and probably a quite low disease tolerance nowadays, even if you had multiple co ordinated releases across several population centres, does anyone have any idea how fast this kind of die off would actually take ?
I really agree with that last comment!
David
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Nice site. Great info. Thanks!
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