Useful Fools

Today, we obsess over Obama and electoral politics. Was Biden the right choice? Who will McCain pick? Will the economy hand the election to the Democrats? What do we do about the price of gasoline?

Now, imagine August, 2006… if….

Aug 11, 715PM San Francisco - First reports are arriving of a major explosion in downtown San Francisco. Large clouds of smoke are visible. Many claim to have seen an airliner, in flames, just before the event.

Aug 11, 725PM San Francisco - FAA sources are confirming that a plane headed to San Francisco Airport has crashed.

Aug 11, 945PM Chicago - A large fire is burning in a crowded residential district near O’Hare airport. It is believed than an airliner has crashed.

Aug 11, 9:56PM Washington - Homeland Security sources report that terrorism is suspected in the two crashes in the last hour. Both aircraft had departed the UK at about the same time.

Aug 11, 1003PM Washington - There was a large explosion at the White House and a huge fire is burning. Apparently an airliner just crashed there. Bodies are strewn down Pennsylvania Avenue. Emergency equipment is racing to the scene. The fate of the President and his family are unknown.

…

Aug 12, 1000AM Washington - Department of Homeland Security puts the death toll from last night’s coordinated terror attack at 3608 passengers and crew, and approximately 350 persons on the ground. A total of ten airliners bound from Europe were involved, with 8 exploding over major cities, one crashing at sea, and one landing safely after a bomb failed to explode and passengers subdued the terrorists.

All commercial air travel in the United States and Europe has been halted. President Cheney has declared a national day of mourning, with all businesses, schools and government offices closed.

The terrorists are tentatively identified as members of an Al Qaeda off-shoot cell in Great Britain. They are believed to have used home-made liquid explosives similar to those used by Palestinian suicide bombers.

What you just read almost happened. By the time British intelligence foiled the plot, 6 of the suspects had already made “martyrdom tapes.”

So let’s see… what is it we were focused on?

Many in the “soft power” crowd really mean something more flaccid - limp power. In other words, not power , just scolding (yeah, that’s you we’re talking about, Democrats of the Jimmy Carter party). Ultimately it’s based on the utopian hope that all can be solved without violence or threats.

But in the recent Georgia episode, the US and its allies have used real soft power in a pretty elegant manner. It doesn’t that powerful when the prime ministers of some former Soviet republics, and France, went to Tbilisi early in the conflict. Hey - they’re just talking heads.

But their presence greatly increased the risks to Russia of attacking Tbilisi… and sure enough, Tbilisi remains free.

And, there were the 2000 armed combat troops the U.S. Air Force flew into Georgia early in the conflict. Here was the Russian Army, at war with Georgia, allowing a significant portion of the Georgian Army to be deployed by Americans right into the conflict. And again, the Russian’s didn’t stop it.

The “soft” move of using unarmed military transports was a hard threat to Russia. Imagine what would have happened if they had attacked those U.S (hence NATO) aircraft. Oops!

Now some powerful NATO ships are sailing to Georgia on a humanitarian mission. Yep - combat ships carrying humanitarian supplies. Not chartered civilian airliners or UN craft, but NATO flagged, armed and capable combat vessels.

I wonder why we went that route? Once again, firing for effect, without having to fire at all.

When those ships land, will it be at Poti, now surrounded by Russian troops? Will the resulting supply convoys have American trucks with American soldiers delivering bandages and tents and food? What will the Russians do when those convoys cross their lines?

More elegant use of power.

But it goes on…

Suddenly Poland agreed to have part of the US missile defense system on their territory. Hmmm… despite what the Russians say, it’s obvious the system isn’t to defend Poland from Russia - or to defend anyone from Russia. It doesn’t have the capability.

But it does defend Poland… softly. That system will be crewed by American soldiers on an American base. Not a place the Russians would want to attack if they decided to go after Poland. It becomes a NATO trip-wire.

The same may happen with the former, heh, Russian ABM radars in the Ukraine that have now been offered for use by the US.

No, I’m not talking about the one a couple doors down from my home.

A real war is happening just across the border in Mexico. 2000 lives were lost just last year. It threatens the stability of that shaky and corrupt country, with untold consequences to the US.

Already, the violence has spilled into the US, with a heavily armed cartel commando team killing a Phoenix resident and then attempting to ambush pursing Phoenix police. A long running battle between immigrant smugglers (”coyotes“) has led to many deaths in southern Arizona, including four in a machine-gun battle on Interstate 10.

The border has become an even more lawless place than in the past. Kidnapping and murder are common. No longer can Americans safely shop in border towns. Corrupt police have in some places been replaced by the more dependable Mexican Army. Some officials who stood up to the gangs have been murdered, and others have sought safety in the U.S.

Dangerous as this sounds, the real problem is much worse Mexico threatens to become a failed state - a next door Pakistan - a land where law and order break down, and criminals and terrorists rule. Enemies of the US, including Jihadist terrorists, would take advantage of this as they have the Pakistani tribal areas - except this is happening right next door!

We could see:

• More Jihadist terrorist attacks within our borders
• An influx of refugees, not just job seekers
• An increase in incidents of the warfare spilling into the US
• A hostile, criminal, anti-American regime on our border, allied with Iran, Venezuela, China and/or Russia

The situation in Georgia now offers a small but not insignificant possibility of armed conflict between US and Russian forces. Russia’s plans for Georgia are not clear, but so far, they have violated their pledge to pull back - still operating forces throughout undisputed Georgian territory.

At the same time, US military aircraft are flying over those troops and into Tbilisi with humanitarian aid.

Meanwhile, Russian soldiers are digging in at the (former?) Georgian port of POTI as a small but heavily armed US naval group heads that way, preceded by a Spanish and a German warship.

The ships are carrying humanitarian aid, but the Aegis destroyer among them has the capability of shooting down Russian aircraft anywhere over Georgia. Likewise, it can attack land targets with cruise missiles and surface and subsurface naval assets. Just last week, Russian ships engaged in combat in that area, taking significant damage from the tiny Georgian Navy.

The Russians, culturally paranoid and genuinely angry at the US, could easily start a shooting match by mistake. We have already read reports of a drunken Russian General commanding the troops ravaging part of Georgia. Some Russians will suspect that our intent is combat, not merely power projection (and the fig leaf of humanitarian aid). A faulty sensor reading, a misunderstood aircraft flight, or another small event could trigger a military response.

it could get interesting. Stay tuned.

Russia controls almost all land oil and natural gas flow into Europe, and takes a cut (Vigorish) of the spoils - a big cut that enriches Putin and those who support him.

The one exception is the BTC pipeline, which avoids Russia by transiting Georgia.

Need more be said?

The Iranians just claimed to have launched a satellite (apparently it failed).

At any rate, they will at some time be able to do so. This represents a remarkable threat to the US. The following scenario is possible but admittedly worst case.

Iran is enriching Uranium-235. When they have enough, they would be able to construct a “gun style” nuclear warhead. This is they design that was used at Hiroshima, without any prior testing.

The technology to make this kind of warhead is simple enough that, given the U-235, it would require only some metal working skills, some low-grade explosive skills, and the ability to make a fuse for the explosives (something Iranian-backed terrorists are quite good at).

A crude weapon of this type would be pretty heavy (a ton or two) but small designs are practical. The US made an 11″ artillery shell with this design.

So, Iran makes a relatively small (in size/weight) fission weapon in secret. It doesn’t test it, so nobody knows they have achieved nuclear explosive capabilities.

Then Iran launches that weapon into low earth orbit - a typical small orbiter launch - claiming it is a research satellite.

At some future time, Iran triggers the weapon when it is above the United States - say, the a few hundred miles west of the NE coast. The Electromagnetic Pulse from that explosion causes a catastrophe for our civilization.

The EMP destroys much electrical and electronic equipment over an area hundreds of miles in diameter. This means no electric power (and no way to restore it in less than months), many vehicles disabled, no water supplies, no sewer systems working, no public safety radio systems, no pipelines working, most computers down, the internet down.

It is a catastrophic attack on our civilization.

Thousands would die. The economic cost would be beyond imagining.

All by a country Obama describes as too small to worry about (it’s bigger than France, Mr. O).:

Coming to you in a couple of years

Rush Limbaugh’s listeners proudly call themselves “dittoheads. The term came about because lefties claimed that they were brainwashed idiots mindlessly repeating what Rush told them - hence “ditto.”

Many on the left, especially in the mainstream media and academia, believe that conservatives are dumb. A lefty friend of mine told me with great assurance that conservatives were just not that smart. Academicians have publish “scientific” studies showing the same.

Of course, this is nonsense. Read National Review or Commentary and you will find the intellectual heart of conservatism.

The New York Times (amazingly) says:

A recent Pew Research Center for the People and the Press). Recently, Pew reported that, on a series of “news knowledge questions,” Limbaugh’s “Dittoheads” — the defiantly self-mocking term for his faithful, supposedly brainwashed, audience — scored higher than NPR listeners.

See for yourself….

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meq2_3c_MyQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eZ22B-2F5M

A new adornment for the blog front page:

This speaks for itself [emphasis added]:

Instead of lenses the imaging system uses an array of microscopic sensors in front of which is a specially made “mask” randomly punctured with holes in a particular pattern.

Actually, though, the articleis pretty interesting.

The Russians are not satisfied with driving the Georgians out of South Ossetia. According to the U.K. Guardian:

Seizing the opening offered by President Mikheil Saakashvili’s doomed military incursion last week, Moscow also insisted the Georgian leader should resign, according to senior US diplomats.

…

Zalid Khalilzad, the US ambassador to the UN, asked his Russian counterpart Vitali Churkin: “Is the goal of the Russian Federation to change the leadership of Georgia?” Churkin replied: “There are leaders who become an obstacle. Sometimes those leaders need to contemplate how useful they have become to their people.”

This makes it pretty clear. The Russians want to dictate the leadership of Georgia. It’s just another step towards returning it to satellite status.

Time to put Russia back into the Axis of Evil.