Comments on: Why Iraq Probably Has Smallpox http://www.tinyvital.com/blog/2003/02/20/why-iraq-probably-has-smallpox/ Exposing the Fools in Media, Academia, the Left, and elsewhere Wed, 25 Nov 2009 22:31:38 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: tramadol http://www.tinyvital.com/blog/2003/02/20/why-iraq-probably-has-smallpox/comment-page-1/#comment-971 tramadol Thu, 12 Aug 2004 05:11:33 +0000 http://www.tinyvital.com/blog/?p=77#comment-971 <a href='http://www.top-tramadol.com' rel="nofollow">Online Tramadol</a> is one of the most prescribed treatments for pain in the world. More than 55 million people have taken <a href='http://www.top-tramadol.com/' rel="nofollow">cheap Tramadol</a> to relieve their back pain, shoulder pain, and other chronic conditions. By acting on parts of the brain that trigger pain, and by reducing the size of pain signals that travel throughout the body, <a href='http://www.top-tramadol.com' rel="nofollow">Tramadol</a> provides powerful pain relief in just minutes! <a href='http://www.top-tramadol.com' rel="nofollow">Buy Tramadol</a> Now or visit this site: <a href='http://www.top-tramadol.com' rel="nofollow">http://www.top-tramadol.com</a> Online Tramadol is one of the most prescribed treatments for pain in the world. More than 55 million people have taken cheap Tramadol to relieve their back pain, shoulder pain, and other chronic conditions. By acting on parts of the brain that trigger pain, and by reducing the size of pain signals that travel throughout the body, Tramadol provides powerful pain relief in just minutes! Buy Tramadol Now or visit this site: http://www.top-tramadol.com

]]> By: John Moore http://www.tinyvital.com/blog/2003/02/20/why-iraq-probably-has-smallpox/comment-page-1/#comment-970 John Moore Fri, 21 Feb 2003 17:09:52 +0000 http://www.tinyvital.com/blog/?p=77#comment-970 There has been lots of speculation by veterans of the smallpox eradication effort (including D.A. Henderson who led the effort and is now a consultant to HHS on the subject) and other experts. Issues raised include: How many people will be infected by each infected person (ranges from less than 1 to over 20 based on historical evidence). How well can it be contained. Ring vaccination was used to stop *most* outbreaks in the past (except for the last New York City outbreak, where massive vaccination was done). However, since the last outbreak the amount, distance and speed of travel has expanded dramatically, making ring vaccination's effectiveness questionable. Also notice that the "catastrophic" link in my article refers to vaccination resistant smallpox, which is outside the experience of any physician. The current population has the lowest resistance level in thousands of years. This is comparable to the level in isolated tribes when they were first exposed to smallpox. Those tribes suffered up to 100% case fatality rates. Virulence of the specific agent. There are many strains of smallpox, including two different species (variola major and variola minor). In addition, genetic engineering (shockingly easy to do) can create agents outside of our experience. In addition to the ILK-4 mouspox experiments (which so alarmed experts that it has greatly increased the push to censor some biotechnology research), the Soviets created (and published in the open literature) a smallpox strain that included the gene for the Ebola toxin. How is smallpox introduced into the population? At how many places? Nobody in modern times has experience with intentionally introduced smallpox epidemics. One cannot count on the terrorists to conform to the least damaging scenario! There has been lots of speculation by veterans of the smallpox eradication effort (including D.A. Henderson who led the effort and is now a consultant to HHS on the subject) and other experts. Issues raised include:

How many people will be infected by each infected person (ranges from less than 1 to over 20 based on historical evidence).

How well can it be contained. Ring vaccination was used to stop *most* outbreaks in the past (except for the last New York City outbreak, where massive vaccination was done). However, since the last outbreak the amount, distance and speed of travel has expanded dramatically, making ring vaccination’s effectiveness questionable. Also notice that the “catastrophic” link in my article refers to vaccination resistant smallpox, which is outside the experience of any physician.

The current population has the lowest resistance level in thousands of years. This is comparable to the level in isolated tribes when they were first exposed to smallpox. Those tribes suffered up to 100% case fatality rates.

Virulence of the specific agent. There are many strains of smallpox, including two different species (variola major and variola minor). In addition, genetic engineering (shockingly easy to do) can create agents outside of our experience. In addition to the ILK-4 mouspox experiments (which so alarmed experts that it has greatly increased the push to censor some biotechnology research), the Soviets created (and published in the open literature) a smallpox strain that included the gene for the Ebola toxin.

How is smallpox introduced into the population? At how many places? Nobody in modern times has experience with intentionally introduced smallpox epidemics.

One cannot count on the terrorists to conform to the least damaging scenario!

]]> By: Chuck http://www.tinyvital.com/blog/2003/02/20/why-iraq-probably-has-smallpox/comment-page-1/#comment-969 Chuck Fri, 21 Feb 2003 15:13:54 +0000 http://www.tinyvital.com/blog/?p=77#comment-969 The New England Journal of Medicine has an article about smallpox by a doctor who worked in an epidemic. I had a link, unfortunately as the article got published, it became register only. I should have "borrowed" a copy. He had a less than doomsday view of the situation. Other smallpox info at my <a href="http://smallpox.simmins.org" rel="nofollow">site</a> The New England Journal of Medicine has an article about smallpox by a doctor who worked in an epidemic. I had a link, unfortunately as the article got published, it became register only. I should have “borrowed” a copy.

He had a less than doomsday view of the situation.

Other smallpox info at my site

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