Useful Fools

The Jerusalem Post has its own estimate of Saddam’s strategy (my ideas were earlier posted here). The JPost article has a lot of detailed information.

Basic summary:

• Slow invading forces by overwhelming them with refugees and army deserters, possibly using chemical weapons to panic them.
• Further slow advance with regular army formations.
• Maximize civilian casualties to shock world public opinion, while making Baghdad into a hornet’s nest.
• After several weeks of slaughter while holding Baghdad, have European friends get a cease-fire from the UN.

Here’s why I don’t think it will work:

• The US forces will not be slowed more than a few days. They are prepared for a mass exodus.
• In the event of attack by weapons of mass destruction (in this case, chemical weapons), US doctrine calls for extraordinary retaliation - normally nuclear. In this case, it would certainly add a requirement that those responsible be captured, which would require full conquest of the country.
• The US has strong war aims - the elimination of a possible WMD proliferator and a terrorist sponsor. This time the US will not quit short of achieving its aims of completely inspecting Iraq and removing all WMD infrastructure.
• If necessary, the US would veto any UN resolution. In any case, the UN has no more armies than the pope!

The main danger of such a strategy to the US (other than military casualties) is the reduction of support for the next conflict with the same goals. Significant military casualties, and probably more importantly (sadly) civilian casualties would strengthen anti-war forces. With Korea as a probable war target, and Iran as a possible, the US will need to keep its determination alive.