Useful Fools

As a contributor to , I will probably be putting fewer posts here for the time being.

The Command Post is a very rapidly updated collaborative blog that consolidates war news from many sources.

As I mentioned in the preceding article, there is considerable suspicion about Saddam’s TV appearance shortly after the massive attack on his suspected location.

The theories on the news networks are:

1. The video was made before the attack, and Saddam’s fate is unknown.
2. It wasn’t Saddam in the video, it was one of his doubles.
3. It was made after the attack, and Saddam was shaken up.

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The “Saddam” who spoke on Iraqi TV tonite did not appear to be the “Saddam” whom Dan Rather interview; nor did he appear to be the “Saddam” of official photographs. The fact that he was reading the speech was also suspicious.

We may have nailed the guy already!

File Photo

TV Tonight (3/19/03)

Here I am, 42 minutes before the start of war, and Google gives as it’s top story this insane Ottawa Citizen headline:

Saddam’s obstinacy signals start of war
Now the Iraqi president’s only hope is a long shot: that protesters will force Bush to sue for peace.

In response to the Orange terrorism threat level, the FAA has issued flight restrictions in four areas. Two are obvious: New York and the Washington D.C. Air Defense Identification Zone. The other two are Disneyland and Disneyworld.

Not San Francisco or Chicago or Los Angeles, but Disney theme parks only?

One wonders…

As soon as Fox News appeared, I switched to it from CNN.
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The Jerusalem Post has its own estimate of Saddam’s strategy (my ideas were earlier posted here). The JPost article has a lot of detailed information.

Basic summary:

• Slow invading forces by overwhelming them with refugees and army deserters, possibly using chemical weapons to panic them.
• Further slow advance with regular army formations.
• Maximize civilian casualties to shock world public opinion, while making Baghdad into a hornet’s nest.
• After several weeks of slaughter while holding Baghdad, have European friends get a cease-fire from the UN.

Here’s why I don’t think it will work:

• The US forces will not be slowed more than a few days. They are prepared for a mass exodus.
• In the event of attack by weapons of mass destruction (in this case, chemical weapons), US doctrine calls for extraordinary retaliation - normally nuclear. In this case, it would certainly add a requirement that those responsible be captured, which would require full conquest of the country.
• The US has strong war aims - the elimination of a possible WMD proliferator and a terrorist sponsor. This time the US will not quit short of achieving its aims of completely inspecting Iraq and removing all WMD infrastructure.
• If necessary, the US would veto any UN resolution. In any case, the UN has no more armies than the pope!

The main danger of such a strategy to the US (other than military casualties) is the reduction of support for the next conflict with the same goals. Significant military casualties, and probably more importantly (sadly) civilian casualties would strengthen anti-war forces. With Korea as a probable war target, and Iran as a possible, the US will need to keep its determination alive.

Those helpful French… you know… the ones who blocked the UN resolution we spent so long working on…. THOSE French have offered to help us if the Iraqis use chemical weapons. Gee… how generous!

No thanks, France! We don’t plan to surrender, so we don’t need your help.

Oh, by the way, aren’t your troops all tied up invading The Ivory Coast and the Central African Republic? You invaded the Ivory Coast a few weeks ago without permission, and you went into the Central African Republic today!

What’s the deal? Are only former colonialists, especially those that left major messes in their wake, allowed to ignore the UN and invade whoever they want?

If Saddam does not leave Iraq in the next 23.5 hours (and he probably wont), it will be because he thinks he can survive IN IRAQ!

Here is my guess about his plans:
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Debka reports that the U.S. has reached a secret agreement with Turkey and is already moving disembarking the heavy M-1 Abrams tanks and other equipment of the 4th Cavalry Divison, and flying in the troops from Fort Hood, Texas.

Meanwhile news reports are predicting that Turkey will officially grant permission tomorrow.