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Nuclear Proliferation and China - An Unlikey Scenario - or Is It?

Sun July 18th, 2004 23:16 MST

When Libya turned over its nuclear material, complete plans for a nuclear weapon were found - in Chinese. This leads to an obvious suspicion that China is encouraging nuclear proliferation. Which leads to the question: why would they do that?

China has a very, very important goal - the capture of Taiwan in the next few years. The old leaders do not want to be remembered for the next 5000 years as the fools that lost Taiwan. Far better the heroes that won it back. But the US promises to block any conquest by using our navy.

However, if an anonymous nuclear weapon were detonated, say, in Washington, DC, our concern over Taiwan would be temporarily eliminated. We would be in shock. We would be looking for someone to nuke. We would be focused on the war on terror like never before. We would probably commit a lot of forces to the middle east. In the confusion, China could take Taiwan.

By encouraging nuclear proliferation, China can improve the odds of this happening, with impunity. \

Far fetched. Let’s hope! But the Chinese tend to have long time horizons, and this kind of trickery is mild in comparison to historical plots.

28 Responses to “Nuclear Proliferation and China - An Unlikey Scenario - or Is It?”

  1. comment number 1 by: Oscar

    Possibly a bit over the top there, but you may be right. The problem will come later when their enslaved Moslem minorities start yearning to be free…

  2. comment number 2 by: John Moore (Useful Fools)

    That problem already exists. They are having trouble now. But I think they expect to be able to exert enough control to not have that big a problem. I don’t know how many country-wide consider themselves enslaved. Far west - yes, and there is violence there. But Muslims were integrated into Chinese society a long time ago, and thus may have a different view of the Chinese government than one might expect.

    Nothing is ever simple when analyzing China.

  3. comment number 3 by: Rolf

    To the best of my knowledge, China has virtually done nothing to dissuade their foolhardy North Korean neighbors from developing nuclear weapons, and this truly spooks me. It seems to me that all nations–indeed even traditional America-hating regimes–would work in unison to keep such weapons out of the hands of a rogue state like North Korea.

    My paternal grandparents, now dead, were German-born Latter Day Saints who staunchly believed that Armageddon looms closeby, that ‘our days on this earth are numbered.’ I used to laugh at them, thinking them old fogies without a clue.

    Now that North Korea and Iran openly proclaim the capability to build and deliver weapons of mass destruction, I’ve gotta’ say that my grandparents’ warnings are beginning to sound light-years less absurd than they once did.

    Does this kind of thinking make me a girlie man?

  4. comment number 4 by: John Moore (Useful Fools)

    Yes, clearly it makes you a girlie man ;-)

  5. comment number 5 by: Rhod

    Chinese complicity in nuclearizing North Korea will result in the worst possible world for them.

    China dreads a fully nuclear Korean Peninsula (North and South), and a nuclear Japan. U.S. military forces in the region suppress the need for South Korea and Japan to counter North Korean capabilities.

    The U.S. ought to consider withdrawl of our forces in South Korea as the first step toward that end. Are we prepared to lose 30,000 soldiers with the trip-wire strategy?

  6. comment number 6 by: Mark

    Rhod:
    Am I missing something here, if the U.S. withdraws all our troops isn’t that inviting disaster ? Sort of an invitation to Kim jong ilk to invade the South ?
    Before 1992 China had the bomb but no effective means of delivery until BJ Clinton gave them the technology for launch facilities. If the U.S. Pulls out of South Korea, the balance is then tipped in the Chi-Comms favor. Then I think that would be inviting it.

    Mark

  7. comment number 7 by: Dude

    Hey all…love this blog. I stumbled upon it, being a meteorologist, looking at John’s storm chase photos.

    I frequent a blog called disjointed.org and I am the only conservative. There are alot of young impressionable people that post there…and I think I’ve made a little progress. If some of you feel like helping me out there, there is strength in numbers! I stop by here and read every once in awhile, but I’m not much for preaching to the choir.

  8. comment number 8 by: Rhod

    Mark:

    I’ve spent some time looking into this subject, and I think an invasion from the North is very unlikely. For one thing, the North/South relationship is too parasitical.

    For another, the North would almost certainly lose, even though the death toll would be in the hundreds of thousands, including about 30,000 Americans military personnel.

    Our garrison there is a tripwire, but it also suppresses the urge in the South to acquire nukes.
    Our presence has the same effect on Japan. No nukes. I don’t think sacrificing 30,000 Americans in the unbalanced effort to keep South Korea and Japan nuclear free is good military policy. China needs to pay SOME price for this crap, and for years China has skated on this type of provocation.

    I view the American Korean garrison as an Asian NATO. It’s useless. We are essentially sacrificing nearly two divisions of our best in a country that, like most of Europe, no longer wants us there. And like Europe, it prolongs the dependency these countries have on you and me, our sons and daughters and our pocketbooks.

    Given a decent interval for withdrawl, it should be made plain to China that we will not inhibit South Korea and Japan to nuclearize. Enough is enough from China. They have again put us in this position, and this time we ought to use the nuclear card. We ought to pledge to react with nuclear arms if ANY invasion from the North is launched, but we shouldn’t have people on the ground.

    I don’t share any of the neocon isolationist tendencies, but we have carried the military burden of several REGIONS, not only countries, for almost two generations. We have a full plate right now, and I think a South Korean troop withdrawl would remove a risk and stick it to the Chinese at the same time.

  9. comment number 9 by: Rhod

    Mark:

    I need to stress that the idea of a nuclearized peninsula and nuclearized Japan horrifies the Chinese. It changes the balance of power in the region enormously; the size and population of China being reduced, it also allows the other small countries to punch above their class.

    I say the sooner the better.

  10. comment number 10 by: Mark

    Rhod:
    I dont agree with that at least the part of pulling out the troops. As soon as we pull them out we will be back with the next 5 years anyway. And what is to say that Japan will go nuclear in the first place ?
    They wont even lift a finger as far as their own defense goes. I can’t imagine the Japanese changing now. As far as I can remember when it comes to Japan they want nothing to do with Nuclear anything. The Chi-Comms are another thing altogether. They have 800 Million people they can’t feed, and I think, an American pullout is all they need for an excuse and they will be in there ‘like stink on sh*t’.
    I dont trust the Chinese and the worst thing BJ Clinton did was to give those homocidal maniacs a means of delivery for their already huge nuclear program.
    If we pull out we will be right back in there.

    Mark

  11. comment number 11 by: John Moore (Useful Fools)

    The Japanese are seriously considering amending their constitution to permit them to increase their military. They may not have much interest in helping us, but they see a bunch of hostile nations nearby.

    They are working with us on an ABM system or two, and no doubt will want to build up their own pre-emptive capabilities (now forbidden by their constitution).

    I think that if they built nukes, it would cause a huge fuss (based on the reaction of my Japanese sister in law just talking about them), but if necessary, they would.

    They would be foolish not to have some already sitting around in a disassembled state, but the Japanese government is capable of even more stupidity than our own government.

  12. comment number 12 by: Mark

    John:
    This is what I always remembered about the Japanese. They are caught up in the ‘end’ of the war and have not let that go.
    But with the neighbors they have one would think for their countrys safety it would be a good idea to pursue any possibilities about defense.
    In China, The Japanese made a lot of enemies, and the old guard part of which is still there, have long memories, way older now wont forget, and there philosophy is if it doesn’t get done in this generation the next one or the one after that will exact their pound of flesh.
    As I said I dont trust them but by the same token I respect them and their abilities.
    To my way of thinking a complete withdrawl, I understand the sentiment of it all, but dont like that idea, because as soon as we pull out, we will be heading right back .

    Mark

  13. comment number 13 by: Rolf

    My deceased dad was a combatant on the island of Okinawa at the close of World War II. Like millions of his contemporaries, he seldom said anything about the war unless he was specifically talking about liberty in San Francisco, liberty in Milwaukee, liberty in New York City, liberty on Mog Mog island, etc.

    But once, years ago, as we watched the old BBC-produced WWII documentary “The World at War,” dad ‘opened up’ a little, and the result was disconcerting, to say the least.

    During an episode of W-at-W, entitled “The Pacific Theater: Island Hopping,” a Japanese soldier was seen scampering from an Okinawan cave, in flames, after having been sprayed with a flamethrower. Dad, who was a man of few words in the 40 years that I knew him, suddenly said flatly, “I was right there when we fired-up that Jap. We were on the Shuri Line at the time.” Astounded that my normally silent forebear had admitted to such a thing, I said rather stupidly: “Imagine how something like that must’ve smelled, burning human flesh and all….”

    Barely missing a beat, and in a tone as cold as ice, dad shot back, “It smelled good. You can’t imagine. But it smelled good. A little payback for Pearl Harbor.” (His cousin, C.R. Necessary, S1/c, USN, is entombed within BB-39, USS ARIZONA).

    He then said, “And if we ever go into a major war again, I hope the Japs are on our side this time.”

    I sometimes wonder if such a scenerio is possible now, given the issue of Taiwan, and the increasingly-tense nuclear situation with North Korea.

    I recently saw a film clip of Japanese troops playing war games in a pine-clad forest in snowy northern Hokkaido. Those troops were well-outfitted, and looked pretty hard-core, I’d say. Like my dad, I’d also have to say, for what it’s worth, that I hope the Japanese indeed lean in our geopolitical direction in the next world conflict.

    Someone said that we might consider removing those American divisions from the 38th Parallel, and, though I’ve seldom given the matter serious thought, there might be something to that suggestion after all.

    We might also consider persuading Pfizer to discontinue marketing Viagra in the Far East.

    Just the opinion of another girlie-man.

  14. comment number 14 by: Frank B

    I agree with you, Rhod, on your point about China’s fear that South Korea and Japan might go nuclear. Pulling out the ground troops is something that should have been done at least ten years ago but feel we should maintain an air and naval presence there for the near term.

    After spending almost ten years in Japan, my perspective in this discussion might be a little jaundiced. I married into the culture but never went as deep as some foreigners who spoke and wrote the language or took up bonsai or other artistic endeavors. My Japanese friends ran the gamut from a sushi shop owner to a WWII general who commanded the Imperial Army Air Forces in China. Political opinions and debates over Japan’s future among my friends were as varied of those we hear in this country.

    What might surprise Americans is how many political parties are active in Japan (there are around ten, at this moment) and how many of them break up, disband, start up under new names or get absorbed into other parties. Many of the powerful parties in existence 30, 20, 10 years ago no longer exist; scandals or lack of public support brought on their demise. But the constitution of Japan, which MacArthur was instrumental in constructing, remains strong and the “no more wars” clause is still part of its foundation. That is not to say that influential hawks aren’t in the government and military. But the Japanese hawk is a pragmatic bird that understands where Japan is on the world map and recognizes that any association with the U.S. is vital to its survival.

    Japan’s relations with China have improved since WWII but a level of distrust still exists between them: China won’t soon forget the atrocities committed against its citizenry by the Imperial Army that swept across the country. For years after the war, Japan would send an emissary on the eve of each new year to make formal apologies for its war crimes to Chairman Mao or Chairman Chou. That emissary for many years until his death was my friend, General Endo Saburo.

    General Endo was imprisoned for a year after the war while MacArthur’s staff decided whether or not he should be charged with war crimes. As Commander of Japan’s Air Force in China he and his airmen were not directly involved in the atrocities but he was part of the command structure and needed to be dealt with. While in prison, Gen. Endo brushed up on his English and wrote a letter to Gen. MacArthur requesting either an immediate trial or release; he was willing to die but not knowing his fate was too much to bear. He was soon released without being charged with any crime. He became a “gentleman farmer” who found peace on a little spot of land the government gave him upon his release from prison. He never impressed me as being one of the hawks, although he possessed the samurai attributes of loyalty, service and dedication to authority. What impressed me more was his quiet sense of humor, his humility and gentleness; I never once heard him raise his voice on any issue we discussed. He was also a staunch ally of America.

    Japan is dealing with the uncertainties of its future in a way that may be contrary or confounding to our way of thinking, but that is, I believe because of the clash of our cultures. After deciding on a course of action, Americans tend to drive ahead hell bent for leather; the Japanese take a more cautious approach, looking more to the long term impact. As to their influence as it relates to stability in the region, there is no question that Japan will play an important role, regardless of past adherence to the no-war constitution. They have lived too long in peace and won’t accept the oppressive life of the war and pre-war Japan.

  15. comment number 15 by: Lan Nguyen

    I am sure Taiwan wanted to have a piece of actions too. The main reason China wanted HK and Taiwan is their wealth, like a beggar wanted to marry a swan princess. HK economy is in decline and anyone who knows anything about relation between freedom and prosperity, would see that years ago (except the blinds). If S. Korea, Japan and Taiwan are all armed to their teeth, that might be a good way to have the Chinese to pre-occuppy with their problems, instead of creating problems to us. The trading with China is a good thing because it brings information and some level of prosperity to Chinese, hence brings some levels of freedom to their people. China can’t afford to be an opportunist anymore but rather have to deal with their neighbors in the nicest way. Let them handle their own Cuba crisis and we should concern of how the French and the Russian will help the terrorists nuking us.

  16. comment number 16 by: John Moore (Useful Fools)

    Lan

    China’s hunger for Taiwan goes beyond money. It comes from ancient historical forces, which the government has amplified as part of their program to distract their populace.

    But China is proliferating. They have provided equiipment and literally complete nuclear weapons designs. Although those designs went to Pakistan (so Pakistan could balance India to Chinese benefit), they have since gone elsewhere - we have a copy from Libya. Furthermore, North Korea is a big problem. We need to clean it up. We cannot wait forever - it has a regime with as crazy a history of Saddam - kidnapping Japanese citizens, frequently sending suicidal commandos to the south, blowing up a South Korean airliner, launching a nuclear capable missile over Japan, etc.

    We need to force China to solve the problem for us. They can do it. We don’t want to have to.

  17. comment number 17 by: Lan Nguyen

    John,

    I don’t think I agree with you on China’s motive on HK & Taiwan. On the surface it sounds that way and they wants to make it looks like that way. But I doubt that is the cause. The current China leadership is wanting the world both ways. That is they want to maintain control of the people the old way and at the same time becomes prosper comparable to their people’s yearning, not relative to Western standard but to their standard. That will never happen because totalitarian and prosperity can’t sleep on the same bed even prosperity defined at their lowly standard. Nothing is so blatant a farce in the face to the communist leaders that their people have come to realize after a long time in coma that their their way will never work and it starts bring in dissents and doubts. They need to defuse the issue as quick as possible by finding a way that communist prosperity is not a pie in the sky. So in order to have the image of prosperity that China is progressing against all conventional ideas of freedom and prosperity always going hand in hand, China needs wealth to foster that image to assure their people that their way is the best way and nothing is better to prove to their people is the obvious wealth and prosperity (after taken in HK) (and when the money is running out, they will sing the union song louder).

    That’s my take on China’s motive and I don’t buy the historical motive a bit. In general, people cannot eat history nor patriotic ideas to live, you know. With the few exceptions, the practical thing is always what we have on the table tonight. HK and Taiwan can bring some more foods and as I’ve said before : Words can fool men but Nature doesn’t give a damn.

    PS: Not to intend to hi-jack your thread on China’s nuclear proliferation to the black enders, I am all for withdrawing our troops from Japan and Korea at the same time, close my eyes on Taiwan, Korea and Japan’s nuclear weapon’s research. If the Demo could not see the NK nuclear’s program going under their noses, we could make the same mistake too right?

  18. comment number 18 by: John Moore (Useful Fools)

    Lan

    I guess we will have to disagree. China has long historical patterns and I think those cause a cultural viewpoint that is unique. They have wanted Taiwan ever since the revolution, long before Taiwan was valuable. Furthermore, they will have a very hard time capturing Taiwan without destroying all of its value. They make more money from Taiwan right now than they would if they conquered it. Taiwan invests heavily in China, very heavily.

    Also, I don’t think it is fair to label China “totalitarian” at this point. It is certainly authoritarian, but it is far too open at this point to be totalitarian.

    The Chinese economy in the new zones is booming. I have friends who work there and say that that it is an amazing phenomenon. I do expect a major correction, similar to the one in Japan, when they are forced to rationalize their bank debt. But that won’t destroy their productivity, just put it into recession for a while. If they do it like Japan - putting off reforms for a decde - it will be a long while. But if they clean it up quickly, it will not be that big an event.

    China is very complex. You have the booming capitalism in some areas, communism in other areas, classic imperial government in Beijing, a huge number of displaced peasants, inflation that doesn’t hurt those in the new area, but is very hard on those still on traditional farms, and an overhang of excess males as a result of abortions and infanticide tied to the one-child policy.

    My father was there last year and was impressed at the economic level. He is a very experienced traveler, having been almost everywhere - USSR during the cold war, South Pole, Egypt, Europe, India, Alask North Slope, Japan, China, Australia, etc.

    It is truly quite a puzzle.

  19. comment number 19 by: Lan Nguyen

    John,

    I guess so and that includes the totalitarian usage. If China is authoritarian regime is Diem’s government is USA. My usage is based on definition of Encarta: A centralized goverment w/o opposition party. No opposition party is my key. Authoritarian regime can include opposition parties.

    It’s not China does not understand that Taiwan investing in China making more money for China. But Taiwan investing in China is not the wealth of China, it’s the wealth of Taiwanese and it’s a constant reminder that China is a failure to provide the lowest standard possible to their people. As with HK, Taiwan has to be eliminated as a proof of their failure. And nothing is better to hide under the flag of national unity.

    I am seriously doubt if China can ever recover. Japan will but China can’t unless they get rid of their current form of government for good. That’s the premise and without that, there is no hope of reform except on papers and news to prolong confidence in foreign investors. Japan doesn’t have tremendous conflict in freedom and prosperity as China has and its problem mainly the social culture of the past flare with capitalism. Any source of Japan problem is no way huge and unsolvable as China has and if Japan in the doldrum for more than 15 years, China would be in there forever. Except, you can’t read it as you can read Japan’s newspaper.

    I used to read economic reports for a living so I guess I am not very easy to be convinced by travelers. They are mostly localized but economic data can tell the big picture of a whole country. It’s not surprising me to see people boasting the growth of China. I bet they all go to Shanghai and cities in the coastal regions. Go to the west and center regions, you will see a different picture of China. Economic data tells me there is a vast difference of income in China. The poorest is 1/13th of Shanghai while in Japan, the poorest is 1/2 of the richest region. And population wise, China regions are roughly even, so the effect of income differentiation is even worse. Nope, China will never pull out of this. They can mask their sickness and anything goes bad in America, China get even 10 more times sicker (in economy term). With that kind of government and with that kind of thinking, they can do worse to hurt themselves by helping our enemies. But if they can think that clear, then they are not the China today and they will definitely give America and Japan the run for the money. Yep, it’s not America that smart but everybody is worse (and they don’t know that but American knows that)

    There are plenty of data of China econmy in this report

    http://www.dbj.go.jp/english/library/pdf/research/all_39e.pdf

  20. comment number 20 by: John Moore

    Lan,
    I used the definition from dictionary.com. My father’s travels went well past the rich social cities. My friends who go there for word are in the high-tech provinces.

    Chinas ultimate economic problem (other than the population differences) is a result of corruption. The same problem happened in Japan. Japan is not authoritarian, but it operates economically much like one. My sister-in-law is Japanese and has operated a business in one of the major kereitsus for decades. The Japanese have substantial corruption in the connections between the government, the banks, and the businesses. In that sense, it is not unlike China.

    The wealth difference is much more dramatic in China, as you point out. The excess of young males is also a wild card - potentially destabilizing.

    However, getting back to the original subject, China wants Taiwan for historic reasons. It may choose to cause trouble there to help divert internal unrest, but the goal is to restore Taiwan to the Chinese empire, even if they have to do it in the process (hence all the rockets).

    I’ll bet that Taiwan has contagious biological agents. They are easy to get and keep for a sophisticated power, and China is the best possible target for them.

  21. comment number 21 by: Airedale

    The excess of young males is also a wild card - potentially destabilizing.

    This is a true statement.

    During the “cultural revolution” people were told to have only one child.
    Of course, the females that were first born may never have seen their 1st birthday.

    In 10 years or so they may have to import women into China to prevent a …
    population implosion.

    That is a subject that could overshadow the old guards dreams of conquest
    as their own “old guard” numbers continue to

    spiral
    downward…
    …..

    ..
    .

  22. comment number 22 by: Beth Moore

    John,
    After reading your comments, I found the 2003 DoD 2003 report to Congress on The People’s Republic of China.

    It pretty clearly states the credible notion of expansion of nuclear weapons, along with other means of Chinese military proliferation. Not to mention, it contains an entire section dedicated to the threat against Taiwain.

    A particularly interesting point:
    “One of Deng Xiaoping’s key directives to China’s security and development establishment was the so-called ‘24-character strategy:’ ‘keep cool-headed to observe, be composed to make reactions, stand firmly, hide our capabilities and bide our time, never try to take the lead, and be able to accomplish something’ (emphasis added).”

    Another interesting article I found was Chinese Military Power: Report of an Independent Task Force (2003).

    This one, not surprisingly, was less diplomatic in its wording of the proliferation of the Chinese military:
    “China’s nuclear arsenal will likely expand in number and sophisticiation over the next twenty years. Although the Task Force is uncertain about the specific impact of U.S. missile defense plans on Chinese nuclear modernization in terms of numbers and force deployment, we believe that China will do whatever it can to ensure that a U.S. missile defense system cannot negate its ability to launch and delivery a retaliatory second strike.”

    Much of the information in the two reports is the same, though the latter stresses the under-admission of the Chinese government towards military expenditure (specifically, they believe it to be “two to three times higher than the official figure”). Scary stuff. It also points to the changing political and economic situations in Russia, North Korea, and Japan as key points to the chances of any military action.

    John, “far fetched?” I think not. You hit this one on the nose. We need to keep watching our backs toward the Pacific while we deal with radical Islam in the Middle East.

  23. comment number 23 by: Lan Nguyen

    Beth,

    That’s very nice report you have there. China, like Islam, is very proud of their past and trying to regain the past glory. They are no different than the Soviet Union at one time, think who got the biggest “bomb” (read: equivalent techonlogical advance as USA’s) are the mightiest, so they are pursuing the technology front. I have no doubt that sooner or later, they will get their big “bomb” because technology can be transfered. This part I don’t think we can stop China on their way. What we can do today is to change China, and even they know it, they can’t do a thing about it. China needs money to pursue her ambitious goal of a mighty nation through military capability and without fundamental social contracts including freedom and rights, they will follow the path of the Soviet Union when (and if) America decides to raise the level of weapon technology, hence the arm race.

    Financial burden is a big issue for China to support their arm races and I believe if it’s not the main reason, it is one of the biggest reason that China were opened for foreign funds in the 90s. Taiwan and HK have done their parts in the early 1990s out of necessity to compete with the western nations and Japan by “outsourcing” to China, and the rest is history. It raises the prosperity level of the Chinese in contact with the outsiders relative their previous level. Figuratively speaking, it was mud they ate before and now, they have porridges. Sooner they will want full meal rice and then a day NY steaks would be a regular demand.
    However, capitalism does not come to any shore alone. He comes with self-interest and a wealth of information to be ruthless efficient. When the price of doing business is no longer attractive, one of them has to yield and I am very sure, it’s not capitalism. He can move else where and let the place and equipments rotten. China will run into this conflict one day and they have to face their citizens’ self interest whose levels have increased substantially after getting contact with the “virus” for a prolong period.

    In sum, I think the best way to deal with China is

    1) continue to tell them the danger of nuclear proliferation and it will cause more harm to them than to USA. Our structure is solid to withstand a hit but they cannot even sustain the periphiral damages propagated by our damage. No one is an isolated island. If “Bush is stupid” meme can be believed, Chinese can’t be worse than those people who believe in those meme considering the logic to convience Chinese are much more solid.

    2) Remove our constrains and military present on SE nations on S. Korea and Japan. We can’t afford to cover the cost at 2 frontal wars because government efficiency is decreased proportional relative to time of maturity and our wealth is challenged at many fronts. This might be bring a terrible effect on Taiwan but after the 1st shock, China will have more problems to integrate than if they have left the Taiwanese alone.

    3) More “defense & strategic” spending. Funds are appropriate from 2 above. If China is apt to the arm race, there will be a consequence to their pocket and it’s their choice to make. Either change to be like us and give us the run for the money or be the Soviet Union.

    4) Continue to openess in “outsourcing” and “trading” with China. This will guarantee a continue increasing level of prosperity of Chinese in contact with us. It ensures a portion of our cost doing business is low hence passing the saving to consumers (yeah I know the argument if the consumers can still have the job). It also ensure us a certain level of moderation within Chinese society.

    The Islamic terrorists are our number 1 enemy today both in term of social structure and enconomic structure. China is not and might or might not be our future enemy. And for that matter, you can’t even tell whether the French is our enemy or not in the future.

  24. comment number 24 by: Lan Nguyen

    My friend is CEO of a big semiconductor company (don’t ask me his name) in Taiwan and I am sure he will be pissed at me but it’s very hard for USA to get in a war with China about Taiwan’s independece. There might be a solution to it but the way the table set, it’s very hard to procure Taiwan’s independence.

  25. comment number 25 by: Fausta

    Don’t miss also Dr. Richard North’s article Galileo: The Military and Political Dimensions, on the Galileo sattelite system

  26. comment number 26 by: Gray

    Lan seems to have the most insight to the cultural and political realities of US-China relations. The degree of economic integration with them in the past ten years (just go to Wal-Mart), along with the fact that a significant portion of our debt for the Iraq war is owed to China, makes the threat of their nuclear arms minimal.

  27. comment number 27 by: Zhang Fei

    Gray: The degree of economic integration with them in the past ten years (just go to Wal-Mart), along with the fact that a significant portion of our debt for the Iraq war is owed to China, makes the threat of their nuclear arms minimal.

    Actually, China doesn’t have to attack the US directly. The whole point behind its nuclear proliferation is to make our enemies stronger. The theory behind this is that if our enemies become stronger, we become relatively weaker, since we have to commit ourselves in a lot of other areas, and may have difficulty committing our forces to the defense of Taiwan, when that time comes. The odds are good that China will, in time, coordinate its actions with our enemies so as to present a simultaneous threat that we cannot respond to effectively (without nukes).

  28. comment number 28 by: tmm

    What makes you think the Chinese government is behind the proliferation? There are many powerful military families who essentially rule China through control of key industries. Hu and other pols are just a well-dressed public face for the masses and ceremonial duties. They are little more than puppets and “rule” in a very limited sense.

    These Chinese sindicates are not much different than the Gambino crime family in New York. Technology is sold to the highest bidder and morals, ethics, and politics be damned.

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