Nutty Norks with Nukes?
The North Korean announcement today bragging about their nuclear weapons, dropping out of the 6-way talks, and announcing a restart of their nuclear reactor has many ramifications.
Nobody is surprised when they claim they have nukes. In fact, they probably do have them - no surprise.
A desire to blackmail the US is behind dropping out of the talks. They are trying what worked in the past - scaring the US until another foolish treaty like Clinton’s. But it won’t work with Bush in charge.
More significant is restarting their reactor. This allows them to create much more plutonium. They are probably looking at a three scenarios:
1) We bomb the reactor. They lose its ability to produce plutonium. That sounds like a bad deal, until one realizes that North Korea is showing signs of internal stress. The human rights pressure is likely to allow North Korean refugees to avoid repatriation, unleashing a flood of North Koreans eager to escape the Stalinist regime. Provoking an attack by the US is a classic tactic to re-kindle nationalism and justify increased repression, relieving internal dangers to the regime.
Furthermore, there are two paths to nuclear weapons: creating Pluloniuim, or enriching Uranium, increasing the concentration of U-235 and U-233. All evidence indicates that the North has the facilities to enrich Uranium, well hidden underground somewhere. Hence the destruction of the reactor would be like a chess sacrifice - giving away one piece in order to improve one’s position. It is also possible that the huge underground facilities in the North have one or more unknown reactors producing Plutonium.
2) We don’t bomb the reactor. They make a lot more Plutonium, producing more bombs or just selling the Plutonium as is.
3) A major attack on the North. They view this as unlikely because it would trigger another Korean war, with WMD tipped missiles hitting all over South Korea, parts of Japan and potentially the US. This would cause tens of millions of immediate civilian casualties, especially in South Korea and Japan. The response would probably nuclear destruction of North Korea, followed by a complex interaction as China, what’s left of South Korea, and the US contend, for different reasons, for the territory.
China wants a buffer state to protect itself from the outer barbarians - an old and recurrent theme in Chinese history. South Korea wants to re-unify Korea. The US and others need to stop the sale and leakage of WMD’s and WMD material from North Korea.
Meanwhile, the Norks may be selling HEU or Pu or completed weapons to terrorists or nations highly hostile to the US such as Iran.
The key to this mess is China. They can hurt North Korea by cutting of its oil and commerce, and allowing refugees to stay free. But they haven’t done so, for unclear reasons.
The US needs to convince China that it is in their interest to end the North Korean nuclear threat and missile proliferation.