Iranian Satellite - Worst Case
Mon August 18th, 2008 20:25 MSTThe Iranians just claimed to have launched a satellite (apparently it failed).
At any rate, they will at some time be able to do so. This represents a remarkable threat to the US. The following scenario is possible but admittedly worst case.
Iran is enriching Uranium-235. When they have enough, they would be able to construct a “gun style” nuclear warhead. This is they design that was used at Hiroshima, without any prior testing.
The technology to make this kind of warhead is simple enough that, given the U-235, it would require only some metal working skills, some low-grade explosive skills, and the ability to make a fuse for the explosives (something Iranian-backed terrorists are quite good at).
A crude weapon of this type would be pretty heavy (a ton or two) but small designs are practical. The US made an 11″ artillery shell with this design.
So, Iran makes a relatively small (in size/weight) fission weapon in secret. It doesn’t test it, so nobody knows they have achieved nuclear explosive capabilities.
Then Iran launches that weapon into low earth orbit - a typical small orbiter launch - claiming it is a research satellite.
At some future time, Iran triggers the weapon when it is above the United States - say, the a few hundred miles west of the NE coast. The Electromagnetic Pulse from that explosion causes a catastrophe for our civilization.
The EMP destroys much electrical and electronic equipment over an area hundreds of miles in diameter. This means no electric power (and no way to restore it in less than months), many vehicles disabled, no water supplies, no sewer systems working, no public safety radio systems, no pipelines working, most computers down, the internet down.
It is a catastrophic attack on our civilization.
Thousands would die. The economic cost would be beyond imagining.
All by a country Obama describes as too small to worry about (it’s bigger than France, Mr. O).:
Coming to you in a couple of years
An enjoyment to read, as always. Just a practical note on nukes. While a “simple” critical mass U235 device might be within grasp of Iran, it’s not a given that they can get there. Uranium is nasty to work with, and they might be one big accident away from calling it quits.
It’s also some challenge to make critical mass U235 devices smaller, especially if one doesn’t have a good supply of physicists (who in the case of Iran haven’t been alienated from their home country) and can’t perform a lot of testing.
Hence my estimate is that the Iranians will strive for a U239 device (and hopefully get hampered by U240 contamination), and that they will test their devices at least a few times, as they just can’t be sure.
This will be right before or after the Israelis turn their enrichment facilities into a smoldering hole in the desert. (All the while the western world keeps nodding in approval while repeating, “No, no, Israel, you can’t do that”.)
Thanks for your comment.
I would be surprised if they couldn’t make a basic U235 device. But, agree that they might have some problem making their device small enough to orbit.
A joker in the deck is that we don’t know how much information they may have been able to get that would compensate for their shortage of physicists (and really, how many top notch ones does it take? One?).
It’s too bad that we have to leave it to the Israelis, once again, to do the dirty work. The free world really needs to get some cojones about this stuff!
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