Soon - US and Russia Shoot it Out?
Thu August 21st, 2008 22:16 MSTThe situation in Georgia now offers a small but not insignificant possibility of armed conflict between US and Russian forces. Russia’s plans for Georgia are not clear, but so far, they have violated their pledge to pull back - still operating forces throughout undisputed Georgian territory.
At the same time, US military aircraft are flying over those troops and into Tbilisi with humanitarian aid.
Meanwhile, Russian soldiers are digging in at the (former?) Georgian port of POTI as a small but heavily armed US naval group heads that way, preceded by a Spanish and a German warship.
The ships are carrying humanitarian aid, but the Aegis destroyer among them has the capability of shooting down Russian aircraft anywhere over Georgia. Likewise, it can attack land targets with cruise missiles and surface and subsurface naval assets. Just last week, Russian ships engaged in combat in that area, taking significant damage from the tiny Georgian Navy.
The Russians, culturally paranoid and genuinely angry at the US, could easily start a shooting match by mistake. We have already read reports of a drunken Russian General commanding the troops ravaging part of Georgia. Some Russians will suspect that our intent is combat, not merely power projection (and the fig leaf of humanitarian aid). A faulty sensor reading, a misunderstood aircraft flight, or another small event could trigger a military response.
it could get interesting. Stay tuned.
It would be interesting to let the russians experience the firepower of a single Aegis destroyer. I don’t believe the russians really understand how outclassed they are.
Yup, this will be the second Pearl Harbor for those poor US ships. Russia has about 60 destroyer class ships, and all its airpower in the region. In fact, Russia doesn’t even need the Black Sea Navy to destroy the US there. Screw the US… Oh wait’s it’s already SCREWED.
Max,
If the Russians were to sink those ships, it would be the end of Putin’s rule and Russia would be gravely hurt.
The reason is that Russia is a backwards nation with a falling population, a dysfunctional economy propped up only by it’s already dropping hydrocarbon exports (produced with western investment stolen by Putin), and a regime which requires a continuous flow of Western luxury goods and services to its members and those who prop it up.
The west would respond by economically isolating Russia, which would destroy it.
BTW, I suspect a US Aegis cruiser and its accompanying submarine could fight pretty well against 60 clunky Russian destroyers (and frankly, I really, really doubt they can sortie 60 of anything except rowboats).
Based on the performance of the russian “navy” against the tiny Georgian navy, a shooting match would end extremely poorly for the russians.
Something that has been documented for years inside of russia is the deplorable state of readiness for all of its armed forces, but especially the airforce and navy, that heavily rely on equipment. Using conscripts like slaves, lacking a true non commissioned officer corps, and poor morale within the officers, all are driving down effectiveness.
So, yes, I do believe one Aegis cruiser can match or outclass the russian black sea “navy”. Besides, if you haven’t paid attention, the US Navy seems to have deployed 5 carrier groups to the Gulf and Med, which means that the US is in position to “handle” pretty much any flying and floating asset russia has south of moscow.
John Moore. Russia has seen many warmongers throughout its history: Napoleon, Hitler, now Bush the United States and puppet Saakashvili. The end was sad for all of them, just like it was for Saakashvili army. Russia had 15K troops there vs 37K NATO trained Georgians and 100K Georgian conscripts who were mostly hiding from the Georgian CIA in the villages, trying to escape the war nobody wanted. Your comments about Russia being a “backwards nation” sound childish and racist. I can see American kids from the top schools settling in Moscow now and never wanting to go back, to the homeland of freedom fries, idiot president, mortgage crisis and moronic government. Your country sucks, you just didn’t see the world enough. These kids make more in Moscow and yes we have 13% flat tax. You are practically bankrupt, and Europe is listening to your BS less and less. I think this a decade of the US decline. Welcome to what we were feeling, you are still to experience our bases in Nicaragua and Cuba, our military experts in South America, Venezuela. Chine will f..k you up too, so no worries, your time will come. Yeah, can you send more of your pathetic marines please? I’m sure the 58th army has some body bags left.
Hey Max, in your list of warmongers, you forgot to mention Reagan. Is that because he vanquished super-powerful Russia without firing a shot?
I don’t doubt that Russia will become troublesome. It’s not surprising you are threatening to cause trouble in our Hemisphere. Heck, the USSR tried it and it was an annoyance, until we defeated the USSR.
Your description of the Georgian situation is clearly lifted straight from Russian propaganda. Pravda, eh?
You might explain why the 58th is all over Georgia, rather than just in South Ossetia, where the conflict started. It would appear that Russia is doing a bit more than protecting those poor South Ossetians (who were themselves shelling Georgian towns, and vice versa).
Could it be that Vlad the Invader wants to firm up his oil monopoly by threatening the pipelines through Georgia? So that he and his silovici buddies can get richer?
As for marines vs. the 58th, I’m sure the 58th is better at atrocities than the US Marines, given their years of practice in Chechnya. Nothing to be proud of, though.
Oh, and “backwards nation” is not a bad description of Russia. Yes, you have lots of billionaires in Moscow - after all, they looted the property of the Russian people and stole the investment the west made in the Russian energy fields.
You do realize, don’t you, that the Russian oil fields were not doing well at all until the West was allowed to invest, bringing in our expertise and technology. And you know that the production is now going down, and the west is not going to invest again, only to have that investment stolen.
And you do know that Russia now has a population less than Pakistan and a GDP smaller than Brazil or Spain, right? And you know that your population is dropping 700,000 per year and your male life expectancy is only 59 years?
And you do realize that the prosperity in Moscow and St. Petersburg comes at the expense of the rest of the country, where people still live in poverty? Moscow is a huge Potemkin Village.
Russia will be a backwards country until it adopts a system which has the rule of law, not the rule of mobsters. Today, Russia is a criminal nation, led by criminals, and willing to engage in murder and invasion for profit. It has no press freedom, and it lacks the structure necessary for sustained economic success.
But Russia need not be backwards. The backwardness is not about race (and the comment is not racist). Russia could be great, if it just respected its own people and the rights of others.
Oh, and the flat tax is a great idea. Too bad the country is so corrupt and violent that investment there is still so dangerous.
AMEN.
Only people who are detached from a reality call Russia a backward country. Someone I know recently told me that China has a better medical system than Russia:) What’s wrong with you people. Wake up!
Russia is a developing country once you get outside the major population centers, and in some respects within the same population centers, especially if you walk onto an army base.
I had not thought of making the comparison, but I would not be greatly surprised if it were accurate to categorize the russian “medical system” below that in china.